Monday, May 18, 2020

Social Distancing Likely Needed Until Mid-2021 Say Researchers


University of Warwick study provides strong evidence for the need to release lockdown measures in a gradual phased manner in the absence of a vaccine.

Significant relaxation of social distancing measures could lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19.

The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, provides one option for preventing a large second wave.
File:Signs and markings enforce social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.jpg
Credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Cynthia Griggs

Other options include the very gradual easing of restrictions across the whole population or limiting restrictions to specific sectors of the population.

 “Ultimately, the scenario which minimises deaths from COVID-19 required long-term social distancing until a vaccine can be delivered”, says lead author.

A cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures is required to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service, a team of infectious disease experts from the University of Warwick, who have investigated the impact of current lockdown measures upon the spread of COVID-19 in the UK, has found.

This may lead to the need for social distancing measures, varying by region and in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, to be in place until mid-2021.

By using a detailed mathematical model calibrated against data on the age distribution of cases, as well as the changing numbers of those being hospitalized and dying as a result of the disease, the researchers have been able to forecast both the short and long term impact of disease as lockdown measures are relaxed.

The researchers found that significant relaxation of social distancing measures could lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies they projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic.

In contrast, the reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required.

The full description of the results is in a scientific paper, Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies, that is now available as a pre-print on medRxiv: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20083683v1

The researchers, led by Professor Matt Keeling, director of the Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), simulated a selection of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures starting in May 2020 and assessed the impact on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment and deaths as key quantities of concern.

The future strategies investigated included: the impact of reducing adherence with the lock-down rules; ongoing shielding of elder age groups while relaxing measures for younger members of the population; and short application of stringent social distancing measures using region-based triggers that came close to ICU hospital capacity.

“Our model predicts that, if significant relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced in May, the UK would have experienced a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 and the health service would be overwhelmed by a second epidemic wave,” said Prof. Keeling. “To prevent this second wave, we require strategies in which the social distancing measures are relaxed slowly, either gradually across the entire population or by targeting different regions or age-groups. Ultimately, the scenario which minimises deaths from COVID-19 requires long-term social distancing until a vaccine can be delivered.”

Dr Tildesley, a co-author of the study added, "We are working round the clock to understand the complex patterns of spread, and find ways in which life can take steps back towards normality without endangering lives. The COVID-19 pandemic is the largest event that we have been involved with in our careers, and we are keen to do anything that we can to help to provide advice that will help to control the spread of disease and to protect the most vulnerable members of society."

The research carried out by the Warwick team also provides evidence in support of the lockdown measures introduced by the UK government in late March in order to control the growth of the epidemic and shows the necessity for a measured approach for releasing lockdown.






Contacts and sources:
Tom Frew
University of Warwick






4 comments:

  1. Why don’t you start calculating the global death rate for every other disease and non covid contributing factor to death and add that up. Assess our response and then compare that to this sheer and utter lunacy. Everyone understands that this disease is highly contagious.They should also understand it can kill you. I know, my whole family was affected by it. So can many things. We know for the most part who is at greater risk. We also know the death rate. Our overall response Cannot be described as anything less than disproportionate Insanity! This garbage study “hard for me to even refer to it as a study” is a perfect example of the thoughtlessness, lack of vision and consideration for the destruction that is running rampant across our world all else covid. Mark my words...history will show that our ongoing response to this crisis will prove to be the biggest blunder we have ever made as a society!

    ReplyDelete
  2. God bless Dr. USELU for his marvelous work in my life, I was diagnosed of HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS since 2018 and I was taking my medications, I wasn't satisfied i needed to get the HERPES out of my system, I searched about some possible cure for HERPES i saw a comment about Dr. USELU , how he cured HERPES with his herbal medicine, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked for solutions, he started the remedy for my health, he sent me the medicine within 3 days. I took the medicine as prescribed by him and 2weeks later i was cured from HERPES contact him via email (dr.uselucaregiver@gmail.com) once again thanks to you Dr. USELU cure the flowing virus, contact his email or add him on whatsapp (+2349019328641) cancer cure
    diabetes cure
    ringing ear
    herpes cure
    warts cure
    HPV cure
    HIV cure
    get your ex back
    pregnancy herbal medicine
    Hepatitis  

    ReplyDelete
  3. God bless Dr. USELU for his marvelous work in my life, I was diagnosed of HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS since 2018 and I was taking my medications, I wasn't satisfied i needed to get the HERPES out of my system, I searched about some possible cure for HERPES i saw a comment about Dr. USELU , how he cured HERPES with his herbal medicine, I contacted him and he guided me. I asked for solutions, he started the remedy for my health, he sent me the medicine within 3 days. I took the medicine as prescribed by him and 2weeks later i was cured from HERPES contact him via email (dr.uselucaregiver@gmail.com) once again thanks to you Dr. USELU cure the flowing virus, contact his email or add him on whatsapp (+2348132015009) cancer cure
    diabetes cure
    ringing ear
    herpes cure
    warts cure
    HPV cure
    HIV cure
    get your ex back
    pregnancy herbal medicine
    Hepatitis

    ReplyDelete
  4. Investing online has been a main source of income,that's why knowledge plays a very important role in humanity,you don't need to over work yourself for money.All you need is the right information,and you could build your own wealth from the comfort of your home!Binary trading is dependent on timely signals,assets or controlled strategies which when mastered increases chance of winning up to 90%-100% with trading. It’s possible to earn $10,000 to $20,000 trading weekly-monthly,just file a complaint with  Robert,I had almost given up on everything about binary trading and ever getting my lost funds back,till i met with him,with his help now i have my lost funds back to my bank account and I can now trade successfully with his profitable strategies and software!! Email: Robertseaman939@gmail.com or Fb.me/investandmakemoney1 or  whatsApp: +44 7466 770724

    ReplyDelete